To ask the Secretary of State for Education, what estimate she has made of the number of children that have moved from independent to state schools as a result of applying VAT to independent schools in (a) Lincolnshire and (b) the East Midlands.

The department has made no separate estimate of the number of pupils in individual local authority areas who have left the independent school system as a result of VAT on school fees.

​The government predicts that, in the long-term steady state, there will be 37,000 fewer pupils in the private sector in the UK as a result of the removal of the VAT exemption applied to school fees. This represents around 6% of the current private school population.

Of the expected 37,000 pupil reduction in the private sector, the government estimates an increase of 35,000 pupils in the state sector in the steady state following the VAT policy taking effect, with the other 2,000 consisting of international pupils who do not move into the UK state system and domestic pupils moving into homeschooling. This state sector increase represents less than 0.5% of total UK state school pupils, of which there are over 9 million. This movement is expected to take place over several years.

The impact on individual local authorities will interact with other pressures and vary between authorities. Every year, many pupils move between schools, including between the private and state-funded sectors.

Local authorities routinely support parents who need a state-funded school place, including where private schools have closed. Where local authorities are experiencing difficulties in ensuring there are enough school places for children that need them, the department will offer support and advice.

​The department provides capital funding through the Basic Need grant to support local authorities to provide school places, based on their own pupil forecasts and school capacity data. They can use this funding to provide places in new schools or through expansions of existing schools.​

Local authorities in the East Midlands region have been allocated a total of £177.1 million, including £23.2 million for Lincolnshire, to support the provision of new mainstream school places needed over the current and next two academic years, up to and including the academic year starting in September 2026.