Dr Branston:

I am fairly sure that the first thing it will say is that this is a charter for the illicit market and will lead to a big explosion in the rate of illicit tobacco in particular. I know that the industry always trots out that line whenever a tax increase, or any other regulation, is suggested. However, the facts simply do not support that line of argument. When the age of sale was increased from 16 to 18 in 2007, the rate of illicit actually went down in 2007-08. Illicit tobacco is driven by a whole host of reasons. It is very complicated, but ultimately it is an issue of enforcement, as we heard before. We need to ensure that we have the rules in place to make sure that products on the market comply with the law and all the regulations therein. I do not feel that illicit is a particular concern at this stage.

The idea of the generational ban is that it will only increase by one year every year. We are not going to suddenly outlaw a habit that millions of people currently have. It is something that many young people will be unable to do going forward, but they are not currently smokers, so we do not have to worry about all those people wanting to buy these products. The fact that they are banned will go a long way towards addressing the issue in and of itself.

The new excise duty due to come in on e-liquid will go a long way to addressing some of the concerns on illicit vapes. Having the products within the excise system means that more enforcement powers will be available, which will in itself help to reduce the rate of illicit. We can be reasonably confident that there will not be a big wave of illicit products in the future.