Professor Gilmore:

We do work on unhealthy commodity industries, which include tobacco, alcohol, fossil fuels and ultra-processed foods. This is increasingly an issue, because what kills us, increasingly, are the products and practices of these corporations. The products of just those four industries account for at least a third of global deaths every year.

Obviously, their aims are to maximise profits, and we now know that their practices are incredibly similar in the way in which they lobby, market, use public relations to massage reputations and buy access to Governments. That is not only a direct problem, but, in a way, a wider system problem. Those industries cause this huge harm, but they do not actually meet the costs of that harm; instead, the individuals who are affected, we as taxpayers and Governments end up paying for those healthcare costs, and so on. We know that even the tobacco industry, despite high excise rates, does not fully meet the costs of the harm it causes, and this incentivises further harm. I would love to talk in detail about that—perhaps another time.

In relation to this Bill specifically, it helps us to understand a few issues. It helps to explain why we have a problem with smoking and youth vaping, because tobacco and vaping companies will market to children and make their products as attractive as possible. We know that the tobacco industry has historically manipulated cigarettes to make them as addictive as possible. In fact, if you look at tobacco industry documents, they are quite clear on that:

“The base of our business is the high school student.”

We know that the key reason we are facing these problems with new products such as vapes is that tobacco companies were under threat. We had done a good job on tobacco control globally, and smoking rates and cigarette sales were coming down; now, globally, those sales and rates are stagnating. The industry is fighting back, if you like. That is why we are seeing a whole host of new addictive products.

What is really worrying is the emerging evidence, both from animal models and human studies, that exposure to nicotine at a young age, such as vaping in teenagers, can effectively rewire the brain and increase the risk of addiction in the long term. For these companies, it is the perfect business model: they can addict them young, and then move them on from one product to another. We need to be very concerned about that.

What is perhaps most relevant is the overwhelming evidence that these companies will fight the legislation at every stage. We refer to this simply as block, amend, delay: they will try to block the legislation; if it goes further, as it is doing now, they will push to amend it and weaken it; and then they will push to delay it, including through litigation. Once it is implemented, they will also work to circumvent it and find loopholes, so we need to ensure that the legislation is watertight. We know that from past work we have done, such as with the ban on menthol, when the industry tried to introduce menthol cigarillos as a replacement for cigarettes by bringing in menthol accessories such as menthol cigarette papers and filters.

In terms of recommendations, I would say that you really need to be on guard against the arguments of the tobacco industry. Having looked at these over many pieces of legislation and in many jurisdictions, we can tell you that the tobacco industry’s arguments do not come true. They may be plausible on the surface, and I am happy to talk about them in more detail, but they do not come true. We also need to be aware of the third parties and front groups through which the industry operates. The tobacco industry has lost its credibility, so it works through third parties—organisations such as the Institute of Economic Affairs, and often through retail groups. I urge you to be cautious about who is approaching you, and to ask who really funds them. We need to be aware of amendments, too. I think we can be certain that the industry is working quite quietly this time, because, over the past few years, it has claimed to have changed. I think we need to be careful of the amendments that are coming in. Push against any industry efforts to delay the legislation. I would also urge you to be really cautious with any evidence or data that is presented to you, because we know from our past work—we did detailed work on standardised packaging when that came in, for example—that the industry will manipulate the evidence and data in its favour. Finally, I urge you to make the legislation as watertight as possible.