My Lords, I thank noble Lords who have contributed to the debate. Before I get to do the “bad cop” thing, I ask the noble Lord, Lord Empey, to send me Mr Ferguson’s details, and I will of course happily look into his case.

Before getting on to the detail of the regret Motions, can I set out some background about the decision to raise the minimum income requirement, to which I shall henceforward refer as the MIR? It is important that we put these issues into context. As the noble Lord, Lord Empey, pointed out, net migration is too high; we have to get back to sustainable levels. In the year to June 2023, as has been noted, it was estimated to be at 672,000. Last year, we announced a series of robust measures to bring those numbers down, including tightening the rules on care workers, as the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, mentioned, as well as on skilled workers, and making sure that people can support family members they bring to the UK.

Far from being a “Get out of the UK” policy, as was somewhat intemperately alleged by the noble Baroness, Lady Hamwee, the approach that we are taking is firm but fair. It is designed not only to bring numbers down substantially but to address the injustice of a system which, if left untouched, would reward employers seeking to recruit cheap labour from overseas at the expense of British workers and put unsustainable pressure on our most vital public services. As I think the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, would concede, that is a laudable aim. The decision to raise the MIR is a key part of our plan to reduce overall migration levels. Taken together, the changes that we are implementing will mean that the 300,000 people who came to the UK last year would now not be able to come.

I turn to the specifics of the regret Motions. First, I want to provide clarity on the objective of raising the MIR. The MIR was first introduced in July 2012 to ensure that family migrants could be supported at a reasonable level, so that they do not unreasonably become a burden on the British taxpayer, as well as to help to ensure they can participate sufficiently in everyday life to facilitate their integration into our society. It has not been increased in line with inflation or real wages since its introduction—nor has it been adjusted in light of rising numbers of migrants using the route. It is in that context that we have reviewed the threshold and taken the decision to raise it to match the level of income needed for somebody to come here as a skilled worker, which is currently at £38,700 per year. That ensures that migration policy supports our wider ambition for the UK to be a high-wage, high-productivity, high-skill economy.

Bringing the family income threshold into line with the new minimum general salary threshold for skilled workers will ensure that people bring to the UK only those dependants whom they can support financially. It will also encourage them to maintain the financial independence of all family members once they settle and who would otherwise gain full access to the benefit system.

We recognise the need to allow families time to plan effectively and to make arrangements to meet the relevant income requirement. That is why we are implementing the increase incrementally. The first increase to £29,000 came into force on 11 April 2024; a second planned increase will take the threshold to £34,500; with the third rise to at least £38,700—and “at least” means at least—taking place by early 2025. We did not seek further advice from the Migration Advisory Committee, the MAC, before making the decision to increase the MIR, but we did consider its previous advice and evidence regarding net fiscal contributions and access to benefits. We also took into account reports about the impact of the MIR on families by the Migration Observatory, the Journal of Economics, Race and Policy and the Justice and Home Affairs Committee, to which I will return.

The right to family life is a qualified right, and in making this decision we have carefully balanced this right against our legitimate aim to protect the economic well-being of the UK. The increases to the MIR reinforce our expectation, which is perfectly reasonable, that all those who want to live here should be able to support themselves, contribute to our economy and not exert an undue burden on the state. The level is based on the median income for people in high-skilled jobs and is a long overdue move to bring up the previous level, which had not been updated in more than a decade. The increase to the MIR will also help ensure that families have a net positive impact on the economy.

It is particularly important in the current climate that family life must not be established here at the taxpayer’s expense, and we must ensure that those bringing family to the UK can financially support themselves without access to benefits. In today’s global economy, it is not unusual for couples to be separated for some months for work or other reasons before both of them can satisfy the immigration requirements of the country in which they wish to live. I say to the noble Baroness, Lady Lister, that we take our international obligations very seriously and recognise that some families who are unable to meet the increased MIR will still need to be granted permission where to deny entry, or permission for further stay, would breach their rights under Article 8 of the ECHR. In those cases, migrants will be granted permission, but placed on a longer, 10-year route to settlement. That would be granted in four tranches of 30-month periods, with a fifth, application for indefinite leave to remain.

It has been suggested that the increase to the MIR is discriminatory. Any foreign national and their British sponsor wishing to establish their family life together in the UK must meet the financial requirements of the family Immigration Rules, including where, for family or other reasons, their scope to undertake paid employment, or reach a particular salary level, has been limited. In regard to sponsors and their partners coming in, we will of course take into account the previous, current or prospective earnings or any job offer of the migrant partner when they apply for entry to the UK, but employment overseas is no guarantee of finding work here and partners coming to the UK with an appropriate job offer can apply under the work route. This does not provide a basis on which to give preferential treatment over other applicants and sponsors who must meet those financial requirements.

Similarly, and this answers a number of noble Lords’ questions, a requirement which varies by region could lead to sponsors moving to a lower-threshold area in order to meet the requirement, before returning to a higher-threshold area once a visa was granted. It could disadvantage those moving for reasons unconnected to the requirement. Defining regional boundaries could also lead to inequalities, as a family living in a wealthy part of a relatively poor region could be subject to a lower income requirement than a family living in a deprived area of a relatively wealthy region. As I have said, those unable to meet the increased MIR will still be granted permission where to deny entry, or permission for further stay, would breach their Article 8 rights.

In February 2017, the Supreme Court upheld the lawfulness of the MIR. The court found that the requirement is not a breach of the right to respect for private and family life under Article 8 and is not discriminatory. The Supreme Court endorsed our approach in setting an income requirement for family migration which prevents burdens on the taxpayer and ensures migrant families can integrate into our communities. The Supreme Court agreed this strikes a fair balance between the interests of those wishing to sponsor a partner to settle in the UK and those of the community in general.

On the impact assessment and the equalities impact assessment, I reiterate the point that they will be published as soon as it is possible to do so. I particularly thank the noble Lord, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, for not blaming me personally for this and I tell the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, that it was 26 March—it is indelibly seared in my memory. Impact assessments are very important in enabling scrutiny of the impact of the increase to the MIR. Initial analysis of the volume impacts of the first stage of the MIR increase was published in December, and while it was our intention to publish the full analysis contained within the impact assessment alongside the rule changes, regrettably, the complexity of the analysis has meant it was not possible to do so.

We have commissioned officials to validate and, where necessary, make changes to some of the assumptions, as the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, pointed out, used in the impact assessment affecting the economic assessment. Those changes are under consideration, and I assure noble Lords again that we will publish this as soon as we can.

The economic impact assessment and the particular impact on various ethnic groups were alluded to by the noble Baroness, Lady Lister. ONS data on ethnicity pay gaps highlights that most non-white British groups have a lower median hourly pay than those identifying as white British. However, those identifying as Indian, Chinese and white Irish had higher median hourly pay, so individuals from those groups may find it easier than other ethnic groups, including those who are white British, to meet the increased MIR. A key cause of lower earnings potential is educational inequality; the Government are investing money in tackling the attainment gap with specific targeted funding for those who are not achieving as well as their peers. I say to the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, that we have discussed on a number of occasions the various measures the Government are putting in place to help the domestic workforce assume some of the roles that we are talking about.

The noble Lord, Lord Empey, referred to Mr Ferguson, the gentleman in Newtownards. There are exemptions from having to meet the MIR within the five-year partner route. We recognise that some sponsors will have a reduced earning capacity as a result of disability or caring for someone with a disability. I will not run through the list of potential exemptions, not least because I do not know whether they apply to Mr Ferguson, but if the noble Lord wishes to write to me, I will definitely take up the case.

On recourse to public funds, those on the five-year partner route are not entitled to public funds when they are granted permission. Once in the UK, they can apply for access to public funds if they are destitute or at risk of imminent destitution, if there are reasons relating to the welfare of a child or if they are facing exceptional circumstances affecting their income or expenditure.

The noble Baroness, Lady Hamwee, referred to the Justice and Home Affairs Committee. I go back to the comments made in a debate on Wednesday 20 September last year, when the Government reiterated that considering the best interests of the child in accordance with our duty under Section 55 of the Borders, Citizenship and Immigration Act 2009 is

“at the heart of what we do; it is a central tenet in our policy and operational decision-making”.

But, as we said at the time,

“the Government remain of the view that family life must not be established here at the taxpayer’s expense and that family migrants must be able to integrate if they are to play a full part in British life

The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, asked about children and why the child element of the threshold has been abolished. I am happy to answer that. It is because tethering the MIR to the general salary threshold for skilled workers ensures that migration policy is supportive of the wider ambition for the UK to be a high-wage, high-productivity and high-skill economy, as I have said. The increase to the MIR will help ensure that families make a net positive impact to the economy, as well as contributing to the government target to lower net migration. There will no longer be a separate child element to the MIR to ensure that British nationals are not treated less favourably than migrants, who are required to meet the general skilled worker threshold as a flat rate, regardless of any children being sponsored. Having a flat rate MIR that must be met in the same way by everyone to whom it applies provides clarity for migrants and decision-makers alike and encourages consistency in financial independence.

As I have set out, the Government approach decisions around immigration policy, including rule changes, with the rigour and care the public would expect. Our position is clear: family life must not be established in the UK at the taxpayer’s expense and family migrants must be able to integrate if they are to play a full part in British life. No one disagrees that migration has enriched our society beyond measure. The United Kingdom remains open to those who wish to come here and contribute to our services and economy, but the numbers have to be controlled and legal migration must be returned to sustainable levels. That is why we have taken this action and we are confident that our approach is in the best interests of the country.