My Lords, this has been a very powerfully argued debate. I am grateful to those noble Lords who have welcomed the regulations for the many supportive points that they have made. I also thank my noble friend Lord Naseby for setting out his objections and concerns with his customary clarity and courtesy. Several noble Lords have already done part of my job for me in responding to my noble friend’s critique, but I believe it to be incumbent on me to address directly all the matters that he raised, as well as the questions posed by other speakers.

I turn to the issue of the illicit trade and the evidence from Australia. Contrary to what the tobacco industry would have people believe, the evidence from Australia does not show an increase in the illicit market in that country following the introduction of plain packaging. There have been a number of criticisms of the tobacco-funded reports on that issue. It is therefore useful to consider the data provided from official Australian government sources. Official data from Australia on the use of illicit tobacco shows a drop in those aged 14 years and over currently smoking illicit tobacco following the introduction of plain packaging. From 6% using illicit tobacco in 2007, the figure dropped to 5% in 2010 and then to under 4% in 2013—after plain packaging had been introduced.

A study published in BMJ Open analysed data from smokers before, during and one year after the introduction of plain packaging in Australia. The proportion of smokers reporting current use of illicit tobacco did not change significantly after plain packaging was introduced. I assure the House that the Government have looked very carefully at the potential impact on the illicit market. Tackling tobacco smuggling is a government priority. I can tell the noble Lord, Lord McFall, in particular, that, due to the fantastic work of HMRC and others, there has been a long-term decline in the tax gap for tobacco products over the past decade. The potential impact of standardised packaging on the illicit trade was considered extensively by HMRC, Sir Cyril Chantler, the Select Committee’s inquiry on smuggling, the Trading Standards Institute and RUSI. They all concluded that standardised packaging will not have a significant impact have on the illicit market. HMRC has undertaken a detailed assessment of the potential impact of standardised packaging on the illicit market, which is the most comprehensive and reliable information available. Its assessment is that:

“We have seen no evidence to suggest the introduction of standardised packaging will have a significant impact on the overall size of the illicit market or prompt a step-change in the activity of organised crime groups.”

The Trading Standards Institute, which has extensive experience of tackling illicit tobacco at retail level, said in its consultation response that it,

“is aware that the tobacco industry regularly argues against standardised packaging for the reason that it will inevitably lead to an increase in the illicit tobacco trade. The Institute does not regard this as a valid argument”.

My noble friend referred to the system known as Codentify. That system is a voluntary security feature developed and controlled by the tobacco industry. We know that HMRC is starting to make use of the system to assist in identifying illicit tobacco. We are working across Government to ensure that anti-counterfeit systems that are useful to HMRC and other enforcement agencies now and in the future can continue to feature on standardised packs. That will require such anti-counterfeit systems to be put on to a statutory footing.

My noble friend suggested that the prevalence of smoking had increased in Australia and that standardised packaging had not helped. Australian government figures show that smoking prevalence is in fact at an all-time low since the implementation of standardised packaging, with a 15% drop between 2010 and 2013. This change is likely to be attributable to the cumulative effects of a range of policies, including standardised packaging.

My noble friend also referred to the study by Kaul and Wolf apparently showing that smoking had increased among teenagers. The Kaul and Wolf report was funded and its release was closely directed by Philip Morris International, part of the tobacco industry. It was based on a specific survey of population smoking that is not intended to provide reliable estimates of smoking among teenagers, and the sample size was very small. It also compared figures immediately before and after implementation, and the effects of standardised packaging are more likely to be gradual. It is not a reliable study, we suggest, from which to draw any conclusions.

My noble friend Lord Blencathra urged the Government to wait for more evidence from Australia. He may like to know that studies in Australia have found that smokers buying standardised packets reported being more likely to prioritise quitting than smokers using fully branded packs. Calls to quit lines have increased. Smoking has decreased in outdoor cafes and fewer packs are being displayed on tables.

What has happened to tobacco sales in Australia? There have been suggestions that sales have gone up. Sales of tobacco can be measured in many different ways—sales by manufacturers to wholesalers, wholesalers to retailers or by retailers to consumers. Different pictures of sales emerge depending on the source of the data and the timeframe. In fact, official government data from Australia suggest that a continuing decline in per capita consumption of tobacco products has taken place. Commonwealth Treasury figures show that excise and customs clearances of tobacco declined by 3.4% in 2012-2013, and that is generally regarded as the most reliable indicator of population sales.

I turn now to the print industry and my noble friend’s complaint that more time should be given to the print industry to enable a proper lead-in period. Standardised packaging is not a policy that has been sprung on the print industry. It has been under discussion since 2008 and two public consultations have been held on the subject, as I mentioned earlier. The regulations would come into force in May 2016, which provides the print industry with a lead time of over a year. I confirm to my noble friend Lady Tyler that the regulations will be implemented at the same time as the European directive is transposed in May 2016 so the industry does not have to undergo two changes to its manufacturing process.

The previous changes to tobacco packaging, such as the requirement for picture warnings in 2008, showed that a 12-month period in which to sell through old stock is appropriate and that stock sells through more quickly than one year. In answer to my noble friends Lord Naseby and Lord Blencathra, it is not true to say that standardised packaging will make it easier to copy packs and therefore make things easier for counterfeiters. Standardised packaging would remain complex to counterfeit. The packs will continue to feature large and complicated to reproduce picture health warnings and will retain all the security features currently on packs, including covert anti-counterfeit marks. The European Union directive includes provisions on the printing of labels. As I said, we have given very careful and measured consideration to that. We believe that the synchronised introduction of the provisions in the directive with the coming into force of these regulations is a sensible course.

Mention was made of intellectual property issues. As I said earlier, we have given very careful and measured consideration to all legal aspects of the policy, and this includes intellectual property aspects. These regulations regulate the use of tobacco branding, which includes trade marks. I emphasise that we regard tobacco as a unique consumer product in this context because it is a uniquely harmful consumer product. For the record, we do not consider that these regulations breach intellectual property laws or our international obligations in relation to trade marks.

I listened with care to my noble friend Lord Geddes, who argued from experience of his National Service that plain packs would not deter smoking. He referred to “Blue Liner” cigarettes, which I was interested to hear about. However, there are several key differences with regard to our proposals. First, the regulations we are considering mandate health warnings, which did not appear on “Blue Liner” cigarettes. Secondly, there is the colour of the packaging. Our regulations take into consideration the extensive market research the Australian Government undertook to determine the most effective designs for standardised packaging. Of the eight different colours tested during the research, dark brown packaging was the least appealing and thought to contain cigarettes most harmful to health.

After carefully considering the research, our regulations adopt the same dull brown colour as the packs required in Australia.

The noble Viscount, Lord Falkland, referred to the possibility of unintended consequences. We believe very firmly that the benefits of these regulations far outweigh any of the unintended consequences that might come from introducing standardised packaging. In some cases, we are not convinced that certain predicted unintended consequences are anything more than scare stories. The department has run two consultations on standardised packaging which contributed to our understanding of all the relevant factors in making our decision.

My noble friend Lord Blencathra queried the Explanatory Memorandum. I think he might have been referring to the impact assessment, which was rated green by the Regulatory Policy Committee, which means that it is fit for purpose.

The noble Lord, Lord Hunt, asked about public support for standardised packaging. Multiple surveys have shown that the public support it. A YouGov poll in spring last year, with a representative sample of 10,000 people, found that 64% of adults in England supported standardised packaging while 11% opposed it. Even among smokers, more people were in support of or neutral towards standardised packaging than opposed it. After the implementation of standardised packs in Australia, support for the policy increased from 28% to 49% among smokers. Survey data from Australia show that more smokers approve of the policy than oppose it.

The noble Lord, Lord Stoddart, made a point that I have heard him make powerfully before—that alcohol is, in fact, the most addictive and harmful drug, not tobacco. I just say to him, as mentioned in my speech, that all smoking is addictive and harmful to health, and half of regular smokers are eventually killed by smoking-related illness. That is simply not true of other consumer products such as alcohol. Tobacco is being treated uniquely in regulatory terms because it is a uniquely harmful consumer good. All smoking is addictive and harmful to health. Therefore, to be absolutely clear, we see the introduction of standardised packaging as a unique approach to tackling smoking and its appalling effect on public health. It fits within a comprehensive tobacco control policy.

We are proud that smoking rates are the lowest ever recorded in this country, and my noble friend Lord Naseby was right to point that out. However, we cannot rest on our laurels. In other parts of the world we have seen that if Governments take their foot off the pedal with tobacco control, smoking rates can go up. For the good of public health, we want to continue our policy action to see smoking rates continue to fall, which is why I once again commend these regulations to the House.