Part of the debate – in the House of Commons am 12:00 am ar 4 Tachwedd 1965.
I see that the hon. Member for Hereford (Mr. Gibson-Watt) is shaking his head with a sense of achievement about this. If the hon. Member feels so proud about this, why is it that tie rate of increase in the number of new jobs in Wales during the 13 years of Conservative Government was half that in England? It was 9·3 per cent. in England, and 5·6 per cent. in Wales.
If that extra 4 per cent. of jobs had been created in Wales during the Conservative spell in office, there would now be 40,000 more jobs available. Who here cannot regret that those 40,000 jobs are not now available? Who can deny that it was the Conservative Party which failed to make these jobs available?
I do not want to waste too much time pondering on the fruitless irrelevancies raised by the right hon. Member for Monmouth (Mr. Thorneycroft). Instead, I should like to turn to the actual problems of Wales. I should like to take a slightly different approach to that of most of my colleagues, who tended to examine the problem from the viewpoint of the existing industries. I believe it to be useful for us at this stage, when we are expecting future development, to look to the siting and locational problems of new industries and to see whether there is any positive contribution which we can make to those which will confront many of these firms. Perhaps in that way we can help the Government in attracting firms into Wales.
We must recognise, within this context, just how dynamic the social background in Wales is at the moment, with popula- tion movement and with the consequent social changes. In four South Wales counties live 2 million of the country's population of 2·6 million, but in two of the counties—Glamorgan and Monmouthshire—was concentrated the whole of the country's increase in population of 3·5 per cent. over that period. Out of a total Welsh population increase of 89,000, 82,000 people live in Glamorgan and Monmouthshire. So, for every 13 new people that there are in Wales, 12 of them live in two counties.
This trend will be perpetuated and magnified, acording to the reports of the planning officers. Glamorgan expect that in this one county alone there will be an increase of a quarter of a million in the population by the turn of the century. More significantly, of that increase, 200,000 will be in one small triangle—the south-east triangle of the county of Glamorgan, comprising Cardiff, Barry and Bridgend. It is interesting to know that this growth of population is not only in the south and south-east but, very substantially, towards the coast.
We can legitimately ask, therefore, why it is that industry has moved towards the south and south-east and towards the coast in particular. It is obvious why the population has moved—because the new jobs were in that area. Under the Conservative Government between 1951 and 1964, we can see how the balance of the Welsh economy became distorted, if we look at square footage of factory space per 1,000 of the population. Square footage of new factory space per 1,000 population which went to Carmarthen was 48,000, to Glamorgan, 17,000, to Monmouthshire, 18,000, and to Pembrokeshire, 22,000.
I do not expect hon. Members to remember these figures, but the important thing to notice is that the smallest in these four counties is the figure of 17,000. I say that it is significant, because in all the other counties of Wales there are only two that are even in double figures. If we take out the two already industrialised counties of Denbigh and Flint, the next highest is the figure of 6,000—virtually a third of Glamorgan's total—in Cardigan.
Therefore, one can see that the prosperity brought by the new jobs has been concentrated in a particular section of Wales, and because the new jobs are there the income potential for the worker is there as well. It is not surprising that in the whole of Wales the most prosperous section is the South Wales coast along to Swansea.
Perhaps this can be attributed largely to one industry—the steel industry. Although Wales has, on average, fractionally higher averages incomes than England, once we leave the steel industry out of account, remembering that steel is largely on the coast of South Wales, we find that the Welsh average earnings are 16s. 1d. lower than the English. The significance of this is not in the 16s. 1d. but in the fact that this much difference can be made simply by leaving one particular group of workers out of the statistics.
In other words, the industrial prosperity of Wales at the moment is largely focused not only in one area but very considerably upon one industrial group, the steel industry and allied industries. By comparison—this perhaps helps to explain why workers are willing to move from the coal industry to the steel industry—the average earnings in the coal industry, just a few miles away in many instances, are £3 1s. a week lower than in the steel industry. It is, therefore, understandable why men move from Monmouthshire and Glamorgan valleys to the steel works when they can get the jobs.
However, the significance of this situation is that it now creates more favourable social circumstances for even more new industry, because as the new population moves in housing programmes have to be expanded. We find that in Monmouthshire and Glamorgan one house in three has been built since the war. But in the counties which are losing the population the picture is different. In Radnorshire and Merionethshire only one in seven houses have been built since the war. Therefore, it is understandable that an industrialist and his management coming to Wales, perhaps having to bring key workers, find it more attractive to go to the already industrialised and urbanised south coast than to other parts of Wales.
Unfortunately, this trend is being accelerated by what I would consider to be the most influential single factor in the long-term development of the Welsh economy. I believe that the industry which will be most important to Wales in guiding our future prosperity is not coal or steel but, basically, transport. Perhaps I can explain it with several instances to show how transport itself is a distorted element in the Welsh picture.
I have referred in the Welsh Grand Committee to the impact which I felt might arise from the Severn Bridge. I pointed out that, with its related complex of motorways, it would inevitably attract industrialists to that part of Wales as opposed to other parts—even places like Swansea and certainly places like Milford Haven. Within 50 miles of the Severn Bridge there are four million people, and within 100 miles of it there are 17 million of the British population. In other words, one-third of the British market is within 17 miles of the Severn Bridge.
The present road pattern aggravates the situation which we see arising. We have had references to the inadequacy of the roads in Wales. The right hon. Member for Monmouth has complained about transport and has asked what we are doing about it. In Wales there are only 27 miles of four-lane trunk roads, of which 23 miles are in Glamorgan and Monmouthshire. In other words, there are only four miles of four-lane roads outside those two counties. The position is not much better with the three-lane roads. In the whole of Wales there are 75 miles of three-lane roads, and 59 miles of them are in Glamorgan and Monmouthshire. In other words, there are 16 miles of three-lane roads and four miles of four-lane trunk roads outside these two growth counties.
The Heads of the Valleys Road will serve these two counties, and it will not help the rest of Wales because it finishes too early. As my noble Friend the Member for Carmarthen (Lady Megan Lloyd George) said, it should strike much further west if it is to help Milford Haven, Caernarvon, Llanelly and Swansea.
The rail pattern which is emerging does not encourage one in thinking that the rail amenities will offset the influence of the road facilities, because the pattern which has been decided upon for rail development in Wales is particularly based, in terms of freight transport, upon the South Wales coastal road. The liner trains will work along the South Wales coast as far as Swansea, and these will act as a magnet to this coastal region. The final transport element is the availability of the ports themselves and, again, these are a South Wales coastal amenity.
Taking all these transport factors into account, it is apparent that an industrialist, and particularly a large industrialist, coming to Wales would have seriously to consider the South Wales coastal area before he looked at any other part of the country. A small firm might be able to ignore these factors but a large firm would not.
What choice does this offer us in planning the growth which we hope to achieve? The one thing which we can try to do is to arrest the growth along the coast and perhaps to stimulate the growth in the valley areas. That has been suggested today, and it is the basis of the development district policy. But—and this is an important factor—even when Rhonda was a development district and some of the coastal areas were not, Rhonda was still unable to attract the factories. This suggests that development district status in itself, at least on the present type of assistance given to development districts, will not attract many firms into those areas.
Will it be enough, therefore, to absorb the unemployment which will be created? Frankly, on the basis of past experience in the ineffectiveness of the development district policy, I very much doubt whether the present pattern of guarantees of aid will bring the firms into the valley areas. We may have to recognise that we must devise a new concept of the development districts, in which we have to step up very substantially the attractions which are offered to firms—in which case we have to designate areas which are entitled to Grade A help or Grade B help, according to the severity of the problem. But even that will not be enough, because none of these factors will fully offset the disadvantages.
I do not say that we should not have development district status nor do I say that we should not step it up, but we should also recognise that perhaps we should be using, rather than regarding as an enemy, the natural attractions of the south coast. We should be using these more effectively to offset the inland unemployment now being created in Wales. For this reason, we might think in terms of the development of trading estates at the heads of the valleys and at the mouths of the valleys, within commuter distance but also within the drawing power of transport amenities which will exist through the Heads of the Valley Road and the South Wales ports, roads and railways. We could then build up a new estate. For example, we could develop an estate such as Treforest in Swansea, where there are 30 acres which could be used immediately and another 30 acres which could be used with a certain amount of ground preparation. These areas could be used as a focal point for the daily movement of labour.
I do not suggest that this is an ideal solution or the solution which we want, but I suggest that it is obvious that we are not getting the other solutions. It has been pointed out that it is preferable for the job to be alongside the worker's home. I agree completely. But present experience is that it is very difficult within the valley situation of Wales to achieve this. It is surely preferable to have a commuting worker than to have a man who is statically unemployed. I suggest that as one of the methods of spreading the prosperity which we hope will be created into the valleys, we should consider development districts in these terms and should also consider trading estates such as the Treforest Estate, in convenient positions for travelling from the valley areas.
But this can be achieved only if the valley transport conditions are improved, and perhaps we should be looking more closely than we have looked in the past at this problem. We have spoken about north-south roads and about east-west roads but not much consideration has been given to the simple valley roads and the rôle which they could play in spreading prosperity. I trust that when he is devising his future plans the Secretary of State will bear this in mind.